Sunday, May 04, 2008

Graduating from the Primary

I just put away my calculator and unfortunately the soonest this drug-out primary could be over for good is June 20th.

On June 20th after Oregon and Kentucky's votes are tallied there will only be 86 pledged delegates left. Today by the most conservative measure Barrack has a 154 delegate lead[1]. He should win North Carolina by a few delegates and he'll be lucky to win Indiana. He'd need an impossible +63 to end it this Tuesday.

The following week he'll lose badly in West Virginia (Appalachia does not favor the black elitist Muslim radical Christian). Kentucky will also go badly, but he should show strongly in Oregon.

In two weeks Barack will have won two, Hillary two and it's anyone's guess what happens in Indiana. Unless there is a massive shift between then and now the pledged delegate count should remain around +150 Obama and late on June 20th it will become impossible for Clinton to win the pledged delegate count.

The popular vote at that point would look equally bleak for Clinton. Obama will lead in every sensible way the popular vote may be tallied, with or without caucuses, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Nevada or Washington[2]. The only way Hillary may possibly be able to claim more votes would require her to count the 328,309 she won in a narrow victory against her only competitor in the Michigan, "Uncommitted" who received 238,168 votes. For this "math" to succeed of course you'd have to assume 0% of "Uncommitted" would have supported Obama.

The following table is a summary of the remaining pledged delegates. After each contest I have placed in parenthesis the number of delegates still in play after the votes for that day are tallied.


Pledged Delegates Available[3]
June 6 IN 72
  NC 115 (217)
June 13 WV 28 (189)
June 20 KT 51
  OR 52 (86)
May 1 PR 55 (31)
May 3 MT 16
  SD 15 (0)

There's still super delegates, but I'd expect riots in Denver if the supers go against the pledged delegates. Even the Clintons don't have the guts to try to steal the election away from the pledged delegates and popular vote. Democrats experienced that in 2001 (and many argue 2004), and they won't take kindly to one of their own attempting to subvert the process[4,5].


Sources:
1. http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates Link
2. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html Link
3. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html Link
4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_election_recount Link
5. http://www.gregpalast.com/cranks-and-kooks-kerry-won-in-04-hear-one-of-them-larry-david-tell-you-
the-stone-cold-evidence-that-yep-george-bush-stole-it-in-2004-again Link

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